Forrester sees AI taking 20% of tech spend in 2027. Just 22% of those it polled saw AI lift EBITDA.
Forrester published the forecast on 21 October.
The return figure comes from its State of AI Survey 2026 and covers the previous 12 months. In that survey, 45% said AI needs to deliver a positive return within a year to count as a success.
Forrester also predicted that more than half of CIOs would miss their AI return targets next year. It expects individual use cases to deliver gains more often than whole programmes.
There is a budgeting complication here. Gartner forecasts worldwide AI spending of $2.7 trillion this year. Its analyst John-David Lovelock told CIO.com that more of the spending is now "about rebranding than diversion": laptops with AI chips and software with AI built in.
Controllers will have to separate new AI investment from existing purchases now labelled AI. Otherwise, the spend report can show a growing AI budget even when the business has funded little additional work.
Image: AI-generated.
Sources
Our file on Forrester
- 29 Oct
Microsoft said Copilot users grew 50% quarter on quarter. CIOs still owe finance a justification for each paid seat.
- 28 Oct
Salesforce says AI agents can rack up costs before anyone notices. It announced a hard stop at the budget, with no price.
- 10 Sept
Gartner says a third of AI job cuts will reverse. Rehiring costs more.
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