Samsung and Apple were named winners. Sub-$200 phones may lose 230 million a year.
Counterpoint Research expects shipments of phones under $200 to fall by about 40% between 2025 and 2030, The Register reported on 24 September 2026.
That would take more than 230 million devices a year off the market by 2030.
The reason sits upstream. Memory and chips are a larger share of a cheap phone's cost, and manufacturers are less willing to keep selling entry-level models at a loss. At the same time, chipmakers are directing capacity toward higher-margin parts for AI data centres.
Counterpoint expects Apple, Samsung and Huawei to be among the beneficiaries as some buyers move up to mid-range and premium phones. Others will keep their phones longer or buy used.
"The smartphone market will recover in unit terms, but the affordable segment will not return to its previous standing," said Counterpoint principal analyst Yang Wang.
The same pressure is reaching laptops. Omdia expects shipments of Chromebooks, the cheap laptops many schools buy, to fall 27.6% this year. PC makers have already raised prices after memory prices quadrupled in a year, The Register reported.
When your next device refresh costs more, which budget absorbs it?
Image: AI-generated.
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